They're putting their money in Europe and in the United States. Russian elites who we would cut off from the global financial system are not putting their money in China. There are critical technologies that Russia is dependent on the United States and our allies on, technologies that Russia, that China does not have access to. What I'll tell you is that China can't give Russia what they don't have. And it's up to President Putin if he wants to become dependent on China going forward. We've learned a great deal of lessons, and what I can tell you is the actions that we would take if Russia were to invade Ukraine this time would be far more significant. ADEYEMO: So, MARGARET, I was in the Obama administration in 2014 when we took actions against Russia in response to their invasion of Ukraine. and Western sanctions be if Russia is just going to move closer to China, as we're seeing?ĭEPUTY SEC. MARGARET BRENNAN: But how effective can U.S. Or he can take the consequences of invasion, which will include severe economic consequences for his economy. He can make the choice of going down the route of diplomacy and dialogue with the United States and NATO. But the key is the choice belongs to President Putin. We're also taking steps to prepare for a potential refugee crisis. A number of our colleagues have worked closely with them. ADEYEMO: So, MARGARET, one of the things that we have done is we're working very closely with our allies in Europe to make sure that we're in a position to help meet their need for energy. MARGARET BRENNAN: But what would the spillover be if you have a refugee crisis in the middle of Europe, if you have this kind of disruption? Does that spike energy prices? What does it do?ĭEPUTY SEC. And what we would see is we would see Russia's economy suffer if they were to take an action to invade Ukraine. You're looking at their borrowing costs increase. The ruble is having the worst performance of- among- among emerging economies thus far this year. The Russian economy is already suffering from the- from the- from the moment that President Putin started to take these actions. To your question of what would be the impact on the global economy if Russia were to invade, we're already starting to see it. We have designed a set of economic sanctions that would take on the Russian financial system, limit President Putin's ability to project power into the future by cutting them off from key technologies and cutting off key elites from the Russian economy. When we started seeing Russian troops amassed near the Ukrainian border, the president asked Secretary Yellen and I to start having conversations with our allies in Europe to ensure that we would be in a place where we could launch economic sanctions against Russia if they were to invade.
ADEYEMO: So, MARGARET, I'm of course, not going to talk about the intelligence, but I want to talk about what we plan to do if Russia were to invade. What would the impact of the global economy be?ĭEPUTY SEC. The impact would be huge in terms of refugee crisis and casualties.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: As we've been talking about this latest intelligence shows Russia has all these forces mounted and could launch this large scale, full scale invasion.
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